Why Retrospective Delay Analysis Carries Weight
Once a project is finished, the programme stops being a plan. It becomes a record and it’s in that shift where many delay analyses lose traction.
Prospective methods are useful during delivery. They allow teams to model potential impacts and respond but, once the work is complete, those models compete with actual events and, out of model and real event, Courts tend to prefer the latter.
This was made clear in V601 Developments v Probuild [2021] VSC 849. Justice Digby emphasised that delay should be assessed retrospectively using as-built facts. The reasoning is straightforward in that when the evidence exists, it should be used.
Retrospective analysis follows the real sequence of events. It shows what happened, when it happened and how it affected completion. It deals with the project as it was delivered, not as it was planned.
That does not mean prospective models disappear, instead their role shifts as they can now be used to assist in structuring analysis. The difference is that they must align with the record. Where there is a conflict, the record carries weight.
This aligns with earlier authority. In Kane Constructions v Sopov [2005] VSC 237, the Court worked through delay claims in detail, testing each against contemporaneous records and the evolving critical path. The analysis was grounded in fact, not abstraction.
The challenge is that real projects are not clean with overlapping activities, sequence changes, moving resources, and more things to consider. A retrospective analysis needs to deal with that complexity rather than smooth it out.
One thing these cases demonstrate is that where analyses rely on idealised sequences, they struggle but where they reflect actual progress, they tend to hold.
The principle is consistent across cases. Delay is not proven by theory, it’s proven by showing what actually happened and why it mattered. Retrospective analysis is an important method to deliver this.
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Prospective methods are useful during delivery but once the work is complete, those models compete with actual events and, that’s where retrospective methods take precedence.